Search Results

The Midwest Workforce Index (MWI) is a composite index that aggregates several employment-related economic indicators. Midwest Workforce Index Is it getting easier or more difficult to find new employees? SM Release Date: May 19, 2026 March 2026 MWI at 48.8 The preliminary March 2026 Midwest Workforce Index (MWI) stands at 48.8. The MWI creates a succinct monthly measure of changing hiring conditions in the Midwest, where values above 50 indicate that hiring was easier than in the previous month. The Index has remained within about two points of 50 for 19 consecutive months, resulting in a 19-month average of 50.0. This indicates that employment availability has remained virtually unchanged since mid-2024. Current hiring conditions now mirror conditions experienced in the two-year period preceding the 2020 recession. Countervailing Economic Forces: The stagnation in hiring conditions results from opposing economic metrics. Reduced demand for employees (evidenced by lower demand for employees in the services sector and an increase in layoffs and discharges) makes it easier to find employees. However, these gains in hiring ease are counteracted by a reduction in available labor. This tightening is observed in lower Labor Force Participation Rates (LFPR) and a reduction in the size of the civilian labor force. It is not getting more difficult to hire new employees, but it is not getting easier either. Looking ahead, continuing economic uncertainties may increase labor availability for some sectors, but this will likely be offset by structural reductions in the labor pool, specifically dramatic declines in immigration and continued Baby Boomer retirements. Note on Methodology: The index data is not displayed for the period immediately following the 2020 recession due to the extreme volatility of the underlying indicators during that time. Research is ongoing to better represent this period. Regional Variance: The MWI represents the entire Midwest region. Local migration patterns, industry mix, and other demographic variations will affect specific markets; therefore, the MWI may not perfectly reflect local experiences. MWI Time Series (2019-2026) Note: This is preliminary work. Past values will change as the research continues. The Basics The Midwest Workforce Index is a research effort by Midwest Workforce Strategies. Past values of the index will change over time as the research continues and for additional reasons highlighted below. The MWI is a composite index calculated by aggregating many workforce-related economic indicators into a single dimensionless number. The design intent is to create a succinct, reasonable, and easily comprehensible measure of the change in effort required to hire new employees in the Midwest. The index design aims to show how hiring conditions may have changed in the Midwest from the previous month. It appears similar to other indicators like the Institute for Supply Management's PMI in that the range varies from 0 to 100, with a value of 50 indicating no change from the previous month. It differs in two primary ways - it is not a diffusion index, and a value above or below 50 indicates economic conditions opposite to what is suggested by the PMI. When the MWI has a value over 50, the aggregated indicators are trending in a way that suggests a possible improvement in the availability of workforce over the previous month. This would typically occur in a contracting economy. Attracting employees may be more difficult than in the prior month when MWI values fall below 50, typically occurring in an expanding economy. The Implications Since the index is based on various publicly released indicators, the MWI is published after the date the last aggregated indicator is released. As such, and because several indicators in the MWI are lagging indicators, the MWI should be considered a lagging indicator - the state of the workforce situation in the past. It is meant to serve as a broader confirmation of what you may have been experiencing and not as a gauge of current or future workforce conditions. More to the point, the index is meant to be used as a discussion piece as you try to understand what you see in local hiring conditions. For instance, do you work in a community that is naturally attracting or losing people? Is your industry rapidly growing or fairly level? Has your organization struggled with attracting and retaining individuals more than other organizations in your area? Disclaimer and Terms of Use The information provided here is part of an ongoing research project. Data is provided “as is” - solely to create a dialog about Midwest workforce shortages. The information should not be used to make business decisions. Midwest Workforce Strategies, LLC will not be liable for any damages related to your use of the data. Past MWI values will change over time as the research continues, government indicators are revised, and more recent values of the aggregated economic indicators are released. Seasonal variations in workforce conditions will likely be missed since most component indicators in the MWI are seasonally adjusted. Local conditions can vary significantly from Midwest averages, so the behavior of the MWI may not align with your regional observations. Some MWI component indicators are naturally ‘noisy’ and may generate unrealistic month-to-month variations in the MWI. Long-term MWI levels and trends are likely a better barometer of Midwest workforce conditions. Please get in touch with me if you would like to discuss workforce implications in your community. Let's talk.

Frequently Asked Questions resulting from over 100 workforce presentatons given across the country. Topics include population, employees, labor force participation, employee types, and more. Frequently Asked Questions Workforce and Hiring Strategy Q: Why should I worry about hiring employees when the job market is down? [New May 2026.] A: Economies can grow fast, slow (like now), or shrink in a recession. Hiring in the Northeast and Midwest U.S., in rural areas, and for in-demand roles makes recruiting difficult regardless of broader economic trends. Baby Boomers are continuing to retire, birth rates continue to decline, and immigration has dramatically decreased. Anything you are experiencing today will change in the near future. Organizations that plan ahead will outperform those that don’t. When the economy becomes robust again, do you want to attract employees away from your competition, or lose your workforce to companies that planned ahead? Strategic workforce planning is a key initiative within successful organizations. You can learn more about the steps in workforce planning here: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/services/leadership-team-planning Q: What types of employees should I target when the economy picks back up? [New May 2026.] A: There are 40 different groups of individuals you could target. They fall into five broad categories: improving the efficiency of your current employees, retaining existing staff, hiring individuals who are not in the labor force, targeting individuals employed elsewhere, and developing the future workforce. The number of individuals in each of the 40 groups and the likelihood of hiring from each group varies by location. You must understand your local opportunities to effectively target your limited resources. The 40 groups are described here: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/workforce-element-definitions County data is located here: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/resources/county-data Q: How can I be more effective at recruiting and retaining employees? [New May 2026.] A: Attracting employees depends heavily on the vibrancy of the economy. As the labor market becomes tighter, you will need to address the root causes that keep individuals from working for you. Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all solution. There are 25 root causes that can prevent the hiring and retention of employees. To successfully hire from different groups, you must address the specific barriers affecting each one. Fortunately, companies are often already addressing some of these factors. To improve your hiring success, you may only need to resolve a couple of additional root causes. These are described in detail here: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/root-cause-definitions Q: How does childcare affect the hiring of employees? Childcare (or family care, which includes senior care) is one of 25 root causes affecting hiring. See: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/root-cause-definitions. It impacts 10 of the 40 different workforce elements. See: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/workforce-elements. Here are a few things to consider. 1) Childcare can be solved externally, as a community effort, or internally, as a company-managed/supported benefit to employees. 2) These are the states with the highest share of females with children less than six years old in the labor force. The top 28 states are displayed, together with Utah, the 50th state. The 12 Midwest states are all among the top 27 states in the country in terms of labor force participation rate, with Minnesota at #1. 3) If the labor force participation rate of women with children is so high in many states, why is childcare still an issue? Quality and cost are often cited as problems. People are finding childcare, but it often erases a significant portion of the revenue they are adding to the total family income by working. 4) Keep in mind that there are childcare deserts as well as communities with a lot of capacity. You can find childcare data on the Resources page, located in the Root Causes section: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/resources/workforce-websites. 5) Be careful when reading the childcare literature if you suspect hype about a decline in the number of childcare businesses. The issue that needs to be tracked is the number of childcare spots, by location, and not the number of companies. 6) This issue disproportionately affects low-income families. If the cost of childcare offsets too much of an individual's new income or if the new income pushes the family income over a threshold (or benefit cliff) and they lose other income (e.g., SNAP benefits), then there may be no financial incentive for an individual to be employed and place their child in a childcare facility. Q: Why did workforce shortages happen so suddenly? A: Some are pointing to COVID stimulus checks, excessive unemployment benefits, and more as to the cause of labor shortages. While these short-term factors likely played some role in the rapid reduction of labor availability, other causes have been building for years. Recently, four labor-related trends, all negative, started to align. - The individuals at the peak of the post-World War II baby boom turned 65 in 2022. That means for the past decade and the decade to come, a large group of individuals is at retirement age, and fewer potential workers in the Gen Xers that follow. COVID accelerated the rate of retirement of the ‘Boomers.' This labor reduction trend will continue unless a significant number of Baby Boomers delay retirement or retirees re-enter the workforce. - Net international migration to the U.S. peaked in 2016 and has sharply declined since. [1] - After over five decades of growth, the female labor force participation rate leveled off and started to decline in 2000. This added to the seven-decade, slow decline in the labor force participation rate of men. [2] - In 2007, fertility rates hit a local peak and have been declining steadily since. [3] This means the number of native-born 14-year-old individuals available to work hit a peak in 2021 and will be declining going forward. Though not a large factor today, it will adversely affect the supply of new people entering the workforce for the next decade. In the short term, the only way to rapidly change this trajectory is for migration patterns to rapidly change, either domestically or internationally. [1] https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/net-international-migration-at-lowest-levels-in-decades.html [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org [3] https://www.cato.org/blog/some-historical-context-fertility-decline Q: What is causing the slow population growth in the Midwest? A: One of the biggest drivers of the number of people in the local labor force is the local population. [1] Unfortunately, population growth in the Midwest is not keeping up with the rest of the country. The two drivers of population change are natural change and net migration. Natural change is live births minus deaths. Fertility rates in the U.S. have been declining for over a decade, which has had a negative impact on the rate of natural change. Even if fertility rates jumped tomorrow, it would be decades before there would be a substantial impact on labor availability. Mortality rates have also increased due to the aging population and, more recently, COVID-related deaths. From July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, 73% of U.S. counties saw a natural decrease in the population. [2] Net migration is the number of individuals moving into a region (county, state, or country) minus the number leaving the region. Suppose we choose a state as the region. In that case, individuals moving into the state from other U.S. states (out-of-state migration) and other countries (international migration) are key drivers of population growth. Individuals moving out of the state to another state or country (out-migration) is a driver of population decline. Net domestic migration is out-of-state migration minus out-migration to other U.S. states. The rate of people moving from one state to another has been trending down for decades [3], but differences vary across regions. Over the past two decades, for every two individuals that the Midwest has lost due to net domestic migration, the Northeast has lost five people, the West has gained one, and the South has gained six. From 2000-2019, Illinois lost 12.1% of its population due to a negative net domestic migration. Michigan was next, losing 8.1%. [4] The lone remaining population control is international migration. Unfortunately, the Midwest does not rank high in this measure of population change. The 12 Midwest states collectively have an average rank of #33 in the fraction of the population that is foreign-born. [5] Illinois tops the Midwest at 14.2% foreign-born, slightly below the U.S. average of 14.6%. Minnesota is next highest at 8.5%. South Dakota ranks last in the Midwest at 3.5%. Low immigration rates impact the population in one other way. The fertility rate of foreign-born women is higher than native-born women, though this has been dropping over the past decade. [6] [1] Discounting remote workers. [2] https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html#:~:text=Natural%20decrease%20occurs%20when%20there,a%20rise%20in%20natural%20decrease [3] https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/figure-a-1.2.png [4] https://www.newgeography.com/content/006773-two-decades-interstate-migration [5] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/states-with-the-most-immigrants [6] https://cis.org/Report/Immigrant-and-NativeBorn-Fertility-2008-2018 Q: What are the best workforce elements to focus on in rural areas? A: Many rural areas in the U.S. are suffering from severe workforce shortage issues due to flat or declining populations. The exceptions often include communities within driving distance of a metropolitan area, areas with natural or other in-demand amenities, and college towns or towns with excellent medical facilities. For rural communities that don't have these, I have found that the following workforce elements are often targeted: Employee output: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 Retention: 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 Not in the labor force: 3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 3.7, 3.12, 3.13, 3.15, 3.16, 3.19 Employed elsewhere: 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.10 Future employees: 5.2, 5.3 The workforce elements tied to these element numbers can be viewed here: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/workforce-elements Q: Will the Labor Force Participation Rate return to pre-COVID levels? A: Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the fraction of individuals available to work that are in the labor force (employed and unemployed). [1] It is one of the most important workforce metrics for the Midwest after population growth since it also tells us the fraction of the population that could enter the workforce. To understand where we might be headed, we'll look at LFPR in a couple of different ways. The good news is that the Midwest has a very high LFPR. The bad news is that the Midwest has a very high LFPR. First, the bad news. Since the LFPR is so high in the Midwest, it means there are fewer people not working that might be pulled into the labor force. With our slow increase in population, it is even more essential to understand the potential to pull these non-working individuals into the workforce. (See the Not-employed Workforce Elements.) The good news is that Midwesterners want to work. The chart below shows the LFPR range, from worst to best, for Midwest states in each of two groups. [2] The states in the 'Northwest' Midwest have some of the highest levels of LFPR in the nation. This group includes Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. States in the 'Southeast' Midwest have slightly lower LFPRs, roughly at the U.S. average. These states include Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio. Overall, the Midwest LFPR has been trending down for two decades, similar to U.S. trends. The U.S. LFPR for ages 16+ varies slightly by gender. The 2022 average LFPR for males is 1.2% below the 2019 average. The female LFPR is down 0.6% in the same period. The prime-age LFPR (25-54) for males has decreased by 0.6% in this timeframe, while the female prime-age LFPR has increased by 0.4%. The U.S. LFPR varies by age group. In 2022, 37% of those 16-19 years old were in the labor force, 71% of those 20-24, 82% of those 25-54, and 39% of those 55 and older. The chart below shows how the U.S. LFPR changed for these age groups from before the 2020 recession until now. [2] Specifically, the change from the 2019 average to the 2022 average. The good news is that the prime-age LFPR is back to pre-recession levels. The greatest drop is in the 55 and older age group. Though the increase in the 16-19 LFPR is encouraging, it is important to point out that the LFPR for this age group is near the lowest level it has been at since 1950. Also, the number of individuals in this four-year window is very small compared to the number of individuals 20 and older. As such, the overall impact of the 16-19 LFPR on the total LFPR is small. The 20-24 LFPR has been slowly declining since the mid-1980s. However, before the pandemic the 20-24 LFPR was increasing. This recent decline is not unexpected due to delays in schooling caused by the pandemic. An increase in LFPR may be possible after the effects of the pandemic subside. Given the number of individuals in this age window, the overall impact on the total LFPR would be small. The prime-age LFPR has been declining since about 2000 until it started to increase around 2015. Could it now continue to increase? Possibly, but there are many reasons this has been on a slow decline. Reasons cited in the media and the literature include an increase in the number of individuals with a criminal record, an increase in individuals with a disability, increased drug addiction, individuals delaying marriage, lack of affordable child care, the decreasing fertility rate, individuals delaying when they have children, individuals assisting with elder care, Baby Boomer wealth transfer, increases in time-to-degree, low wages, early retirement, individuals seeking a work-life balance, more individuals seeking part-time work, and more. Since so many factors drive the slow decline in LFPR, it seems unlikely that a substantial increase in prime-age LFPR will occur soon. The 55+ LFPR decline has been cited by many, especially recently with LFPR declines related to the pandemic. The chart below shows the LFPR for this age group since 2000. [2] A clear break in the LFPR occurred in 2009, likely related to the start of the Great Recession. The continued flat lining of the 55+ LFPR has been associated with the slow recovery from the recession and the early Baby Boomers (born in 1946) turning 65 in 2011. Given that the last Baby Boomers turn 65 in 2029, it's hard to imagine the 55+ LFPR will change significantly unless worsening economic conditions pull many retirees back into the labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes 10-year projections on various labor-related items. Reference 3 highlights recent LFPR projections for 2031. For every age group discussed above, the 2031 projections are lower than the 2021 LFPR levels. These projections are based on long-term trends and do not try to account for short-term fluctuations that could occur, like a recession. When looking at the LFPR changes of the different age groups of individuals, it is hard to believe that any sizeable change in the labor force participation rate will occur over the next five years without some significant economic event like a recession, continued high inflation, or the like. Given population growth concerns in the Midwest, organizations will likely need to target recruitment to specific subgroups of individuals within and not in the labor force to find sufficient talent. [1] The civilian noninstitutional population excludes active-duty members of the military, those confined to correctional institutions, and those in residential care facilities. [2] Data from www.bls.gov. [3] See https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm. Q: What are the best workforce root causes to focus on in rural areas? A: Many rural areas in the U.S. are suffering from workforce shortages due to declining populations. However, communities within driving distance of a metropolitan area or with in-demand amenities can buck this trend. For rural communities that don't have these opportunities, I have found that rural communities can address the following workforce root causes, which impact many of the workforce elements: - Expertise/learning/training, - Targeted marketing/engagement, - Culture, - Work schedule/location, - Wages & Benefits, - Management, - Transportation, - Policy restrictions - Internal, - Child care, - Housing, - Job security, and - Amenities. The full list of 25 root causes can be found here: https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/root-cause-definitions Q: Why is it so difficult to find high-school students to fill part-time jobs? A: I asked ChatGPT this question, and the AI answer is shown below in [brackets], together with my comments and data following. [Finding teenagers to fill part-time jobs has become increasingly challenging due to several factors. One significant reason is the heightened academic pressures and extracurricular commitments that demand more of their time and energy, leaving less availability for work. Additionally, the competitive landscape for college admissions encourages teenagers to focus on unpaid internships, volunteer work, and other resume-building activities rather than traditional part-time jobs. The rise of the gig economy and online opportunities also provides alternative ways for teenagers to earn money, such as freelance work, content creation, or tutoring, which often offer more flexible schedules. Furthermore, parental concerns about safety and the overall work environment contribute to a decline in teenagers seeking part-time employment. Together, these factors create a complex environment that makes it difficult to attract and retain teenage workers in traditional part-time roles.] I find it hard to believe that many companies hire teenagers for ‘freelance work’ or ‘content creation.’ The following are the reasons I have seen in the literature for the long-term decline in the teenage labor force participation rate. Students volunteer more. More females participate in sports. Higher rates of high school graduation. Competition from a rising immigrant population. More students are focusing on college preparation. The younger the age, the more transportation becomes a constraint. Why work for minimum wage? I can take out loans and pay them back after college. Manufacturing declines have pushed adults into the service sector, competing with youth. Parents are providing more funding to their children, so there is less need for them to work. In the past, there was often one parent employed and the other able to help with the teen's job issues. Today, there is a higher probability of a single parent or both parents being employed, which limits the time to assist teenagers with job-related needs. What does the data say? The youth labor force participation rate (LFPR) has been declining since the 1970s. It has tended to remain level between recessions but then drops rapidly in recessions. Note that this data is for formal jobs and does not include informal jobs like babysitting, grass cutting, snow shoveling, etc. Even when there is a sufficient supply of teenagers in a community, and employers are willing to hire them, the results are often not what is hoped for. The LFPR of teenagers is lower than for the rest of the population, and it decreases as age decreases. Teenagers often work part-time, part-year, or part-time for part of the year. The unemployment level of teenagers is higher than for the rest of the population. I estimate that for an organization with 300 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) employees, at most, one FTE is 14–15 years old. If you look at the number of specific individuals (versus FTEs), you are a company with 1,000 employees, and you look like the U.S. average: 9 employees would be 14-15 years old, 13 employees would be 16-17 years old, 21 employees would be 18-19 years old, and 957 employees would be 20 or over. Essentially, only 4 of 100 employees would be a teenager. Q: Will the search for employees get easier as the Midwest economy slows down? A: Some, but keep in mind that several factors are at play. 1) The Midwest Workforce Index suggests that the month-to-month changes in many of the workforce indicators have subsided. Unfortunately, many indicators that make up the index are at two-decade lows. For example, this graph shows unemployment in the Midwest census region. [1] The June and July 2022 unemployment rate in the Midwest was the lowest it has been since 1976. 2) Industries such as retail, restaurants, travel, tourism, and a variety of manufacturing subsectors tend to be more negatively impacted by an economic slowdown than industries like food manufacturing, insurance, education, utilities, healthcare, and government. The industry mix in your community will affect the number of layoffs and the availability of labor. 3) Demographics is another factor (see the population pyramid FAQ). The Baby Boomers are retiring, fewer young adults are entering into the working-age population, and immigration has been declining. See the graph below for the entire U.S. [1] This plateauing in the number of working-age individuals should dampen the effect of a slowdown on layoffs. Your local conditions may be better or worse than conditions elsewhere in the Midwest based on your local demographics. 4) The skill sets of new individuals looking for a job may differ from your needs. This would reduce any potential gain in the available workforce. 5) A recent behavior I have observed in some companies is what is referred to as labor hoarding. [2] Holding on to employees even with a reduction in the need for labor, possibly out of fear of not finding employees once the softening of the economy ends. Some companies keep a larger than necessary workforce but limit the hours for some of the staff. Others assign employees tasks that were never fully taken care of when the economy was doing well. The business case must be made to take on these additional costs versus the accrued savings from completing the tasks, any reductions in layoff expenses, and reductions in new hiring once the slowdown ends. See the other FAQ on labor hoarding. The most important thing to remember is that when any slowdown ends, the Midwest will likely be back in the same situation we were in before. Any workforce planning you do today, even with a slowdown, will benefit you when the economy rebounds. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org [2] https://www.inc.com/steven-i-weiss/labor-hoarding.html Q: What are the elephants in the room that often surface in workforce workshops? A: One undercurrent that often surfaces is the perception that HR needs to market more. This often leads to brainstorming sessions on ideas for more marketing – more billboards, etc. Running neck and neck is resistance from an individual in a department with the most likelihood of more work. Resistance can come from the head of operations, the plant manager, or even from HR. Changing processes may lead to more work for their department, even though work may be reduced across the organization. A great example is moving from hiring only full-time employees to part-time staff. Hiring more part-time employees can increase work for HR staff and make scheduling more complex on the plant floor. However, it can also lead to a large increase in applicants. Q: Which workforce root causes affect the greatest number of workforce elements? A: For the research completed to date (22 of 40 workforce elements), Expertise/ Learning/ Training and Targeted Marketing are the root causes that influence the greatest number of workforce elements. [1] The bar chart shows the ranking of all 23 root causes. This chart only highlights the relative number of linkages between the different types of individuals (workforce elements) and what is constraining them from working or being retained (root causes). A given root cause impacts different workforce elements to different degrees. A few comments: - Targeted marketing is important because different types of people are best reached in different ways. However, despite its importance, marketing is the last step in the Workforce Vector process. If root causes are not addressed, marketing may be futile. Even if there is success in hiring, reduced retention may lead to added costs. - I've observed internal policy restrictions as a constraint in most of the companies I have worked with. Companies live with policies that were developed years earlier, and that may have become irrelevant ... but the old decisions live on. A perfect example is, "We only hire full-time staff.' Companies have policies like this because scheduling is easier, HR has fewer people to process, etc. Given that about 20% of all employees are part-time workers, policies like this limit the size of an organization's potential workforce pool. - Project Management and Project Selection/ Scope rank low because they predominantly affect 'virtual' people. By virtual people I mean getting more work accomplished with no more people through Automation and Continuous Improvement. Essentially, you are getting more work accomplished as if you had hired more individuals. [1] Root cause research is not yet complete. As the Root Cause Matrix is developed further, this result may change. Q: Why can’t I find people with the economy slowing down and fewer companies hiring? A: There are a lot of issues affecting labor availability, but one of the most significant drivers is the fraction of the population that works. This chart displays the prime-age (25-54 years old) Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for males and females in the 50 states. The orange crosses show the average of the states in each region (*). What does this chart show? - About nine women are in the labor force for every ten men. - There are about two women who are not in the labor force for every one man. - The Midwest leads the country in the fraction of both sexes in the labor force. There just are not many people left to hire. - Combining both sexes, South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota have the most people in the labor force, at over 89%. - The states with the highest fraction of men in the labor force are North Dakota, Kansas, Utah, Iowa, and Minnesota. These are the state averages, which means in some counties in the U.S. there could be more than 95% of prime-age males working. - The states with the highest fraction of women in the labor force are South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota. - Vermont, South Dakota, Nebraska, Alaska, and Minnesota lead the way in gender work parity, with over 92% of women in the labor force compared to the men in the labor force. - The Midwest and the Northeast are above the national trend in the number of women in the labor force. The West and South fall below the trendline. - Comparing regional averages, the Male LFPR in the South is 5% less than the Midwest. The Female LFPR is 7% less. Essentially, there are few people left to hire in the Midwest and Northeast. More people are available in the West and South, but they are not in the labor force. The people who are not working are not working for a variety of reasons. Some of the issues are: - The jobs are not where the people live, given the need for reasonable commutes and affordable transportation. - Some individuals have disabilities that prevent them from working. - Some individuals have sufficient income from family members and savings that they do not need to work. - The cost to work (clothing, day care, transportation, government benefit cliffs) often is too large compared to the revenue from work, especially in low-wage states. - Women work at a much lower rate in some states, especially in the West and South. - In summary, companies and communities are not addressing the 25 root causes that keep people from working. See https://www.midwestworkforce.com/wv/root-cause-definitions. There are five broad talent categories to consider when trying to grow: 1) get more output from current employees, 2) retain current employees, 3) pull more people into the workforce, 4) attract people to your organization who are employed elsewhere, and 5) build the workforce of the future. A focus on strategy three might be best for many southern states, while strategies one, two, and/or four might lead to better results in the Midwest and Northeast. (*) These are the Midwest and West Census regions. Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia have been moved from the South Census region to the Northeast region since these states behave more like Northeast states in many of their labor demographics, and to get roughly one-fourth of the states placed in each of the four regions. The data is from 2023. Q: Why does the entire executive team need to be in attendance at workforce workshops? A: Organizations have a vision and strategies for their entire organization, but most do not have a workforce vision and workforce strategies designed for future workforce realities. This is not an HR problem. The entire company has to be on board with how the company needs to change to win the competition for talent. A great example of this is the company that asked their engineering team to learn more about the issues facing the U.S. and the opportunities to ‘Turn 90 degrees.’ Leadership wanted engineering to design future products requiring fewer people to build their product, fewer to install their product, and fewer to address warranty issues. Q: My county data seems different from what I expected. Could there be an error in your data? A: There is always a chance for errors, in general, but especially so in research studies. The Workforce Vector is a new way to look at workforce, and the research and data analysis are ongoing. Over one-half a million numbers are imported into the website database, and it takes many millions of additional numbers to make all the necessary calculations and estimations to get county-level estimates. If something looks wrong, there is a slight chance it is wrong. Please drop me a note, and I’ll investigate it and get back with you. COMING SOON: I WILL BE ADDING MORE Q&A. PLEASE CHECK BACK. A: Coming soon. Coming soon: Which root cause should I focus on that will impact the most workforce elements? A: COMING SOON. Coming Soon: Which one workforce element should I focus on to attract the most employees? A: Coming soon. Coming Soon: Why doesn't the Midwest's low cost of living attract more people to live here? A: Coming soon. Coming Soon: What can I do to get more people to migrate to my community? A: Coming soon. Coming Soon: Is Labor Hoarding making it more difficult to find employees? A: Coming soon. Coming soon: Why is it so difficult to find teenagers to fill part-time jobs? A: Coming soon. Coming soon: What is the role of taxes on attracting people to our state? A: Coming soon. Coming Soon: Why should I be looking at local population pyramids? A: Coming soon. Coming Soon: Where do you see remote work headed? A: Coming Soon. Coming Soon: Is unemployment the issue? A: Coming soon. Coming Soon: It's the Millennials, right? A: Coming soon. I will be posting more Q&A over the coming months. Please email me if you have a specific question you would like answered. Back to Resources

Midwest Workforce Strategies helps organizations understand local workforce challenges and develop plans to find new employees based on the Workforce Vector. Workforce Strategy Stop Guessing Where Your Next Employees Will Come From Standard job postings only reach a fraction of the workforce. We use a data-driven roadmap to uncover the 40 talent pools your competitors are missing. Why Traditional Recruiting is Failing You The 'Post & Pray' Trap 'Post and Pray' is becoming less effective. Generic job postings cast a wide net, often missing the specific talent pools qualified for your roles. You face two extremes: a flood of under-qualified applicants or silence. This untargeted approach drains HR budgets and consumes staff time, yet often fails to deliver the talent you need. Losing the Wage War Raising wages is often a temporary fix. Higher pay attracts candidates, but it cannot compensate for operational barriers like rigid scheduling or limited career paths. Competing solely on price creates a transactional workforce that leaves for the next dollar. Money brings them in, but it fails to stop the revolving door. Chasing Silver Bullets Chasing silver bullets fuels initiative fatigue. You pivot between media hype and care washing, yet hiring and retention struggles persist. This cycle confuses activity with progress and ignores the structural root causes. Instead of layering on another fad, you need a strategic roadmap built on operational excellence. Strategic Solutions for Workforce Growth Helping you bridge the gap between vision and execution. Keynotes & Breakouts Inject energy and facts into your next conference. I cut through the quick-fix hype, challenging audiences to 'Turn 90 degrees' and adopt a new perspective. My keynotes deliver entertaining, data-driven insights and reveal the proven process successful companies use to find and retain talent. Read more - Keynotes and Workshops Workforce Roadmaps Stop reacting to shortages. We lead your executive team through a rigorous planning process that fuses our local data with your knowledge of company and community strengths. Together, we identify the talent pools you can win and prioritize the root cause improvements needed to attract and retain them. Read more - Leadership Team Roadmaps Proven Impact in the Field "Ron’s presentation on workforce availability opened our eyes and changed the way we think. His presentation is entertaining and engaging, but factual and data-driven. Prior to connecting with him, we would never have considered some of the alternative labor pools that we deploy today.” Tom Pientok President & CEO, Timberline Manufacturing Ron Cox, Ph.D. I don't guess; I engineer solutions. I apply the rigorous principles of aircraft design to the complex problems of recruiting and retaining employees. My career spans the private sector and academia, overseeing units as diverse as Engineering, HR, Finance, and IT. I have presented to more than 1,000 organizations, helping them translate complex labor shortages into actionable workforce roadmaps. Data-Driven Workforce Strategies for a Changing Economy Aerospace Precision 1. Locally-Optimized Labor Solutions We design the world’s most complex fighter jets with absolute precision; why is finding and retaining talent so difficult? We “Turn 90 degrees” to take a new approach. We use aerospace principles, your workforce vision, current hiring gaps, and data from 3,000+ counties to build a sustainable path to workforce stability. The Workforce Vector 2. Where to Find the Most Talent A generic ‘We’re Hiring’ sign treats every prospect the same, ignoring the 40 distinct labor pools available to you. The Workforce Vector framework provides data for your county, identifying which specific populations you can realistically attract. Stop guessing and start targeting your limited resources to where you will be most successful. Operational Excellence 3. Turn Strategy into Hiring Results Sustainable results require more than vision; they require operational excellence. Mapping your selected labor pools against the 25 root causes limiting hiring success eliminates the systemic barriers to employment. This strategic resolution ensures your roadmap becomes a permanent solution, not a temporary patch. Replace Hiring Hype with Data-Driven Solutions How does your county compare? Get a free workforce potential snapshot. Email me with your Name, County, and State at Ron.Cox@MidwestWorkforce.com I will send you a Workforce Potential summary for your county. The SPAM Promise We respect your inbox as much as our own. Your email address is used strictly for communication regarding your current inquiry and will never be shared, sold, or added to any future marketing or promotional mailing lists. Not looking for data? Let's Talk

Available to speak at Rotary, Lions, Kiwanis, or other service clubs on the topic of workforce challenges and solutions. What is your workforce vision? Are your strategies different than your competitors? Do you have the systems in place to win the competition for workforce? Do you know where your future employees are and why they aren't working for you? What is your workforce vision? Are your strategies different than your competitors? Do you have the systems in place to win the competition for workforce? Do you know where your future employees are and why they aren't working for you? Service Club Presentations A Fast-Paced Workforce Briefing for Community Leaders Is your service club looking for an informative presentation on the topic of workforce shortages? If you're a service club member of Rotary, Lions, or Kiwanis and want a fast-paced, entertaining, and data-driven program on workforce challenges and solutions, I can help. My presentation covers how our workforce shortages have been building for over 50 years, highlights projections for the next 20 years, and provides steps an organization can take to find new employees in places they may not have considered. Over the past three years, I have given over 50 service club presentations. I am not able to present to small groups due to time limitations. If your service club routinely draws 50 or more business professionals, please contact me at ron.cox@midwestworkforce.com . "Ron Cox was an EXCELLENT speaker for DMAM! Truly, one of the best talks we've had in my memory. He knocked it out of the park for us today." - Des Moines A.M. Rotary Member Past Presentations (select) Rotary Club of Peoria, Noon Rotary Club of Owatonna, Noon Rotary Club of Omaha (Downtown) Minneapolis Downtown Rotary Rotary Club of Des Moines A.M. Webster City Rotary Iowa City Noon Rotary Mason City Rotary Jefferson Rotary Newton Rotary Sioux City Downtown Rotary Marion Rotary Ames Rotary Fort Dodge Daybreak Rotary Decorah Rotary Fairfield Rotary Davenport Rotary Council Bluffs Rotary Garner Rotary Marshalltown Rotary Muscatine Rotary Cedar Rapids Downtown Rotary Back to Services

Dr. Deb Sellers Deb Sellers applies the science of lifespan human development to solve complex human capital challenges. At Midwest Workforce Strategies, Deb moves organizations beyond compliance, using research-based frameworks to help executives create inclusive, multi-generational solutions to address challenges and leverage opportunities. Dr. Deb Sellers Subject Matter Expert: Generations, Disability, and Organizational Operations Deb Sellers applies the science of lifespan human development to solve complex human capital challenges. At Midwest Workforce Strategies, Deb moves organizations beyond compliance, using research-based frameworks to help executives create inclusive, multi-generational solutions to address barriers to employment. Deb’s common-sense perspective reflects a career spanning health care, human sciences, and administrative leadership, with substantial expertise in operational excellence, intergenerational dynamics, and disability inclusion. As Associate Dean and Director of Human Sciences Extension and Outreach at Iowa State University, she managed a $9 million budget and led a remote team of more than 100 staff. She implemented contemporary management models to expand offerings, serving more than 4,000 youth and 170,000 adults annually. Her operational expertise encompasses strategic planning, design of efficient and scalable systems, and personnel development that supports diverse abilities and life stages, particularly among older adults and individuals with disabilities. She equips organizations to optimize generational change and diverse abilities into measurable competitive advantages. Download Full Curriculum Vitae (PDF)

Workforce videos and commentary on the workforce vector, which is a new, research-based approach to finding and retaining employees. Workforce Videos & Commentary Insights from Ron Cox Videos What caused the Midwest workforce shortages, and what can we do about it? This three-minute video answers those questions. It was created while I was the director of a business outreach center at Iowa State University (CIRAS ) . It highlights Iowa data, but the solutions apply across the U.S. YouTube: CIRAS Workforce Strategies This 53-minute webinar was hosted by Delta Dental of Iowa in November 2023. Most of the data and the conversation are focused at the U.S. and Midwest levels, though a small amount of data is Iowa-focused. YouTube: Help Wanted: Trends and Strategies for Iowa’s Workforce Stop back. More videos will be posted in the coming months. Email me to request a video on a specific topic. “To say the least, I was impressed; not only by your presentation but also by the information and ideas you shared.” - Economic Development Board Member Commentary Midwest Labor Force Participation Rate - Where is it headed?.pdf T he Midwes t Workforc e Index.pdf Growing in a Labor Shorta ge.pd f The Iowa Workforc e Skirmishe s.pdf Stop back. More articles will be posted in the coming months. Laborers and Telemarketers and Baristas, Oh My! Lab or Hoarding - Fact or Fiction ? Midwest Population Pyramids Back to Resources

Digital accessibility statement for the Midwest Workforce Strategies website. Digital Accessibility Accessibility Statement for www.MidwestWorkforce.com Measures to support accessibility Midwest Workforce Strategies, LLC takes the following measures to ensure accessibility of the website https://www.MidwestWorkforce.com : Provide continuing accessibility training for our staff. Conformance status The Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) defines requirements for designers and developers to improve accessibility for people with disabilities. It defines three levels of conformance: Level A, Level AA, and Level AAA. The website www.MidwestWorkforce.com is partially conformant via personal effort. The goal is to get to the most recent WCAG standard in 2023. Partially conformant means that some parts of the content do not fully conform to the accessibility standard. Feedback We welcome your feedback on the accessibility of www.MidwestWorkforce.com . Please let us know if you encounter accessibility barriers by contacting us in one of two ways: the Contact form on the https://www.MidwestWorkforce.com website , or by email at Ron.Cox@MidwestWorkforce.com . We try to respond to feedback within 5 business days. Technical specifications Accessibility of https:// www.MidwestWorkforce.com relies on the following technologies to work with the particular combination of web browser and any assistive technologies or plugins installed on your computer: Wix web platform recommendations. These technologies are relied upon for conformance with the accessibility standards used. Limitations and alternatives Despite our best efforts to ensure the accessibility of www.MidwestWorkforce.com , there may be some limitations. Below is a description of known limitations, and potential solutions. Please contact us if you observe an issue not listed below. Known limitations for https:// www.MidwestWorkforce.com : Images: A few images may not have text alternatives because theses images are primarily graphic elements and not meant to provide legible text. We are searching for alternative images. Please contact us if you would like more information. Links: A few links do not have accessible names. These are being investigated. Please contact us if you would like more information. Assessment approach Midwest Workforce Strategies assessed the accessibility of www.MidwestWorkforce.com by the following approaches: Self-evaluation, University of Illinois Functional Accessibility Evaluator 2.3 , and Wix web platform recommendations. Formal complaints Please email or submit a form with recommended improvements. Date This statement was created on December 1, 2022 using the W3C Accessibility Statement Generator Tool .

Workforce strategy workshops are a great way to develop individualized and actionable workforce plans. Conference attendees leave with a draft workforce plan. What is your workforce vision? Are your strategies different than your competitors? Do you have the systems in place to win the competition for workforce? Do you know where your future employees are and why they aren't working for you? What is your workforce vision? Are your strategies different than your competitors? Do you have the systems in place to win the competition for workforce? Do you know where your future employees are and why they aren't working for you? Workforce Strategy Workshops Master the Mechanics of Data-Driven Recruiting Conference Breakouts and Pre-conference Training Are you looking for an event breakout where attendees leave with an actionable plan to grow their labor force? If the answer is yes, then a workforce strategic planning workshop may be what you need. Details Time: Breakouts are 60 to 90 minutes. Pre-conference training sessions vary from two to four hours. Who: Event attendees from the same company work together on a plan. When: Breakouts should be held after the keynote presentation. Size: A maximum of 100 attendees can be accommodated in a breakout or pre-conference training event. Handouts for Attendees: Workforce Elements , Workforce Root Causes , the Workforce Root Cause Matrix , and a Workforce Strategy Map template. Attendees can download additional copies of the handouts after the event from this page of the password-protected site. Data Access: Attendees are provided access to the Workforce Vector data on a password-protected site for three months following the event. Deliverable: A draft workforce strategic plan based on the Workforce Vector, written in a balanced scorecard framework. Cost: Workshop costs are included in the speaker fee. Conference organizers receive a money-back guarantee. Agenda 0: Setting the Stage 1: Create a workforce vision - The current state - The future state 2: Workforce Customer Strategy - Workforce Vector data - Competitor analysis - Workforce values - Workforce Element decisions 3: Workforce Strategy Value Proposition - Workforce Root Cause decisions - Workforce image and reputation 4: Operational Excellence - Recruiting processes - Retention processes - Workforce innovation - Risk management 5: Investment Tactics and Strategies "After seeing Ron Cox’s keynote and attending his workshop, our agency decided to focus on three workforce candidate pools. We have since developed comprehensive strategies for awareness, recruitment, and training to maximize these opportunities." Michelle Madden CEO, Independence of Portage County, Ohio Build Your Strategic Roadmap Workshop Materials Back to Services

The Workforce Calculator estimates employee types for your organization based on U.S. averages so you can explore opportunities to improve. Workforce Calculator Locating Opportunities How is your organization doing hiring individuals from the 40 different labor pools? The workforce calculator will show you where you are exceeding expectations and where you may be missing opportunities. The calculator takes the U.S. average for the different workforce elements (types of individuals) and estimates how many of the various types of employees you would have in your organization if you looked like the U.S. average. (In the future, this will be updated to be specific to your industry.) Don’t read too much into the numbers you get. There are wide variations from county to county in some of the elements - large companies tend to have significantly more HR resources than small companies, different industries tend to target different groups, levels of success vary across different industry sectors, and there can always be extenuating circumstances in a specific company or community. This calculator is only provided to give you a rough estimate and to help you think about new possibilities. The components of the Workforce Vector are termed the Workforce Elements . The 40 elements fall into five broad business and Human Resource categories: Increasing the output of your current employees; Retaining your current employees; Hiring individuals who are not employed or are unemployed; Attracting individuals employed by others; and Building your future workforce. The workforce calculator currently provides information for workforce elements related to the highlighted section of the table below. It will include more elements in the future. Workforce Element definitions can be found on this page . Note that you cannot add all of the numbers in the table above to get a total snapshot for your organization. Some of the elements cross over. You might employ Females 20-54 years old and Individuals with a Disability. Some of the Individuals with a Disability might also be a Female 20-54 years old. That said, some of the elements can sum to your company size. Specifically, those related to age and those that are looked at in isolation. For instance, Veterans and Non-Veterans. Back to Resources

The Workforce Vector is the direction your organization could take to find different types of employees, together with the potential number of new employees. WV Top The Workforce Vector Engineering Workforce Stability in a Turbulent Labor Market SM HR professionals today are navigating a convergence of structural pressures that no previous generation has had to face. Between a post-COVID economy, declining immigration, accelerating Baby Boomer retirements, and falling birth rates, the structural availability of labor has fundamentally changed . In this environment of scarcity, traditional recruiting methods often fail to yield results. This is not due to a lack of effort, but because the market has shifted beneath our feet. The Workforce Vector system was designed to navigate this complexity. We apply the rigorous mathematics of aerospace engineering to this web of changes, replacing uncertainty with calculation. By benchmarking your county against 3,000+ others, we identify specific, data-backed opportunities that remain hidden to competitors , allowing you to engineer a recruiting roadmap built upon current demographic realities. Element Workforce Elements The Workforce Vector data shows you the directions your organization could take to find new talent pools AND the number of individuals you could hire from each pool. - If you target women with young children, exactly how many could you attract? - If you want to improve migration to your community, what is the realistic cap on that success? We refer to these specific directions to look for untapped talent as Workforce Elements. Workforce Elements are the 40 different types of individuals you could target to grow your organization. "Prior to connecting with Ron, we would never have considered some of the alternative labor pools that we deploy today.” Tom Pientok President & CEO, Timberline Manufacturing Workforce Elements Potential Workforce Potential "We hired 30 new interns within one month after your work with our executive team." President, Midwest Manufacturer The workforce potential is the likelihood of hiring success from the different labor pools in your community. The Workforce Potential is the number of individuals, for each workforce element type, who could enter the local labor force. The workforce potential is calculated by comparing your county with over 3,000 U.S. counties so you can see the potential in your community to hire from each of the 40 groups of people. This lets you target your limited resources to those individuals where you will be most successful. Workforce Potential Root Cause Workforce Root Causes After an organization decides which workforce elements to pursue, the next step involves understanding and addressing what limits those individuals from entering the local workforce. Workforce Root Causes are the reasons limiting or preventing an individual from working for an organization, for each workforce element type. A literature search of the root causes constraining the hiring of each of the 40 workforce elements uncovered 25 distinct root causes. Each root cause affects one or more of the workforce elements. "After seeing Ron Cox’s keynote and attending his workshop, our agency decided to focus on three workforce candidate pools. We have since developed comprehensive strategies for marketing, operational excellence, and training to maximize these opportunities." Michelle Madden CEO, Independence of Portage County, Ohio Root Cause Definitions RCM Root Cause Matrix "I particularly found the data and systematic approach to Disability Service Provider recruitment presented by Dr. Ron Cox very helpful and actionable." Workshop Attendee Ohio Alliance of Direct Service Professionals (OADSP) In mathematics, a matrix is a table of numbers or symbols arranged in rows and columns. They can be used to provide a mapping from something you know to something you want to know. A matrix is used here to link the 40 workforce elements to the 25 root causes that limit hiring success. Once you choose the types of individuals you want to hire, the root cause matrix will tell you which of the root causes you may need to improve if you want to hire and retain those types of individuals. Workforce Root Cause Matrix Equation The Workforce Equation The workforce elements, potentials, and root cause matrix are key pieces of a workforce strategic plan. Other key pieces include a competitor analysis , the operational effectiveness of your organization , and the investments to improve root causes. How these work together are displayed graphically in an equation. The equation's terms are described on The Workforce Equation page. For each term, an example of how a company addressed the term is discussed. "Ron makes math seem simple." Comment on a Speaker Evaluation Form The Workforce Equation WV Data Workforce Vector Data for for Your County "Ron has amazing data and is a great storyteller." Amy Jennings Executive Director, Lead DSM Workforce Vector data for all 3,143 U.S. counties and the District of Columbia are available to conference and workshop attendees. In each county, four variables are provided for each of the 40 workforce elements. how well the county is doing at employing those individuals, where the county ranks among all counties, the number of individuals available to work, and the potential to draw more of that type of individual into the local workforce. Attendees also receive the workforce root cause matrix and a process flow template for developing a workforce strategic roadmap. Workforce Vector Data vec·tor /ˈvek-tər/ noun 1. Mathematics. An item that has both direction and magnitude, especially as determining the position of one state relative to another. | The automobile's velocity vector was comprised of a speed of 60 mph and a direction of northeast.