Question 1

What are the best workforce root causes to focus on in rural areas?

Accepted Answer

Most rural areas in the U.S. are suffering from severe workforce shortage issues due to flat or declining populations. The exceptions include communities within driving distance of a metro area, areas with natural amenities, and college towns. For communities without these, I have found rural areas can address these root causes: Expertise/learning/training, Targeted marketing/engagement, Culture, Work schedule/location, Wages & Benefits, Management, Transportation, Internal Policy restrictions, Child care, Housing, Job security, and Amenities. Full list: midwestworkforce.com/wv/root-cause-definitions

Question 2

What are the best workforce elements to focus on in rural areas?

Accepted Answer

Most rural areas suffer from workforce shortages due to declining populations. For communities without natural amenities or colleges, these workforce elements are often targeted: Employee output (1.1, 1.2, 1.3), Retention (2.1, 2.2, 2.3), Not in the labor force (3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 3.7, 3.12, 3.13, 3.15, 3.16, 3.19), Employed elsewhere (4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.10), Future employees (5.2, 5.3). View elements here: midwestworkforce.com/wv/workforce-elements

Question 3

How does childcare affect the hiring of employees?

Accepted Answer

Childcare is one of 25 root causes affecting hiring, impacting 10 of 40 workforce elements. Consider: 1) It can be solved externally (community) or internally (company benefit). 2) Midwest states are among the top 27 in labor force participation. 3) Quality and cost are the main issues; childcare often erases a significant portion of revenue added to family income. 4) There are childcare deserts and areas with capacity. 5) Track the number of childcare spots, not just companies. 6) This disproportionately affects low-income families; if costs offset new income or trigger benefit cliffs, there is no financial incentive to work.

Question 4

Why did workforce shortages happen so suddenly?

Accepted Answer

While COVID factors played a role, four negative trends aligned: 1) Peak Baby Boomers turned 65 in 2022, accelerating retirement. 2) Net international migration peaked in 2016 and has declined. 3) Female labor force participation leveled off in 2000. 4) Fertility rates peaked in 2007 and have declined, reducing the number of native-born 14-year-olds entering the workforce. In the short term, only rapid changes in migration patterns can alter this trajectory.

Question 5

What is causing the slow population growth in the Midwest?

Accepted Answer

The two drivers are Natural Change (births minus deaths) and Net Migration. Fertility rates have declined, and mortality increased due to aging and COVID. Net Domestic Migration (state-to-state) has trended down; for every two people the Midwest loses, the South gains six. International Migration is the remaining control, but the Midwest ranks low (#33 avg) in foreign-born population share, with Illinois at 14.2% and South Dakota at 3.5%.

Question 6

Will the Labor Force Participation Rate return to pre-COVID levels?

Accepted Answer

The Midwest has a very high Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), meaning there are few non-working people left to pull in. The LFPR has been trending down for two decades. In 2022, 37% of 16-19s, 71% of 20-24s, 82% of 25-54s, and 39% of 55+ were in the labor force. Prime-age LFPR has declined since 2000 due to issues like criminal records, disability, drug addiction, lack of childcare, and more. A substantial increase seems unlikely soon.

Question 7

Why is it so difficult to find high-school students to fill part-time jobs?

Accepted Answer

I find it hard to believe many companies hire teenagers for 'freelance work.' Reasons for the decline include: Students volunteer more; more females in sports; higher graduation rates; competition from immigrants; focus on college prep; transportation constraints; reluctance to work for minimum wage; and parents providing more funding. Data shows youth LFPR declining since the 1970s. I estimate that for an organization with 300 FTEs, at most one FTE is 14–15 years old. In a 1,000-person company, only about 4 employees would be teenagers.

Question 8

Will the search for employees get easier as the Midwest economy slows down?

Accepted Answer

Some, but factors are at play: 1) Many workforce indicators are at two-decade lows. 2) Industries like retail and tourism are hit harder than healthcare or utilities. 3) Demographics (Boomer retirement) will dampen layoff effects. 4) Skill mismatches may reduce potential gains. 5) Labor Hoarding: companies are holding employees despite reduced need, fearing they won't find talent when the economy rebounds. Any planning done today will benefit you when the economy recovers.

Question 9

What are the elephants in the room that often surface in workforce workshops?

Accepted Answer

One undercurrent is the perception that HR needs to market more (billboards, etc.). Running neck and neck is resistance from individuals in departments likely to see increased work, such as the head of operations.

Question 10

Which root cause should I focus on that will impact the most workforce elements?

Accepted Answer

If root causes aren't addressed, marketing is futile. 1) Internal policy restrictions often limit pools (e.g., 'We only hire full-time' when 20% of workers are part-time). 2) Project Management ranks low because it affects 'virtual' people—getting more work done via automation and continuous improvement rather than hiring.

Question 11

Why can't I find people with the economy slowing down and fewer companies hiring?

Accepted Answer

The Midwest leads the country in labor force participation; there are simply few people left to hire. States like SD, IA, and MN have over 89% participation. Those not working face barriers: jobs aren't where they live; disabilities; sufficient family income; or the cost to work (childcare, transport) exceeds the revenue. Communities are not addressing the 25 root causes keeping people from working.

Question 12

Why does the entire executive team need to be in attendance at workforce workshops?

Accepted Answer

Most orgs lack a workforce vision for future realities. This isn't an HR problem; the whole company must align. Example: A company asked engineering to 'Turn 90 degrees'—designing products that require fewer people to build, install, and service, directly addressing workforce shortages.

Question 13

My county data seems different from what I expected. Could there be an error in your data?

Accepted Answer

There is always a chance for errors. The Workforce Vector imports over 500,000 numbers and performs millions of calculations. If something looks wrong, drop me a note to investigate.

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Workforce and Hiring Strategy